Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ACT's high implied volatility indicates market optimism, coupled with strong past price performance suggesting potential future gains. Regulatory clarity could boost investor sentiment, driving prices higher.

Bearish Case: Regulatory uncertainties and high implied volatility may prompt sell-offs, particularly if financial performance fails to meet expectations. Historical trends indicate possible price declines under adverse conditions.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of regulatory clarity boosting ACT, driving prices to $40.
2. 50% chance of stable performance with minor fluctuations around $34.
3. 20% chance of sell-offs leading to a price drop below $30.

Trading Oracle: Consider trading long volatility debit spreads with expiration around February 2025. Implied volatility suggests substantial potential upside. Focus on maintaining a bullish stance with flexibility to adjust based on regulatory developments, targeting a price range of $38-$40 as favorable exit points.

December 15, 2024