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AI XLP Forecast

Bullish Case: XLP presents a stable investment option as implied volatility is trending downwards, indicating a lack of drastic market movement. With a historical return ranging positively over holding periods, confidence in consumer staples could lead to price strength.

Bearish Case: Despite stability, the high put volume and recent flat trading suggest market caution, potentially yielding downward pressure on XLP prices. Implied volatility at historic lows might mask underlying concerns.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Sideways movement continues, 65% probability;

2) Mild increase driven by market recovery, 25% chance;

3) Market correction leading to a 10% pullback, 10% chance.

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October 20, 2024

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLP

CL Colgate-Palmolive (0.99)

ADMA Adma Biologics (0.98)

VIG Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.98)

BK Bank Of New York Mellon (0.98)

UHS Universal Health Services (0.98)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLP

CTLP Cantaloupe (0.0)

WSM Williams-Sonoma (-0.0)

MCD McDonald's (0.01)

BE Bloom Energy (-0.01)

SNAP Snapchat (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLP

SAVE Spirit Airlines (-0.94)

MED Medifast (-0.95)

SH ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.95)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.96)

SDS ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.96)

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