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ACVA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: ACVA's recent uptick in price and low implied volatility suggest investor optimism, particularly if upcoming innovations materialize due to historical volatility patterns indicating positive price momentum over extended horizons. Institutional support may drive further gains.



Bearish Case: Increased put trading volume and recent insider sales signal skepticism regarding future growth, compounded by historical volatility suggesting a potential price decline. The flat recent performance contrasts with sector expectations.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued bullish sentiment boosts price to $25 (30%).

2. Flat growth persists around $21 (25%).

3. Regulatory challenges or negative news lead to a drop to $17 (20%).

4. Surge in auction activity drives price past $30 (15%).

5. Major insider sales prompt deeper downturn to $15 (10%).



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance with a focus on debit spreads on short-dated calls (e.g. ACVA 12/20/2024 22.50 C) since current low implied volatility creates attractive pricing. Consider the upcoming earnings for potential upward momentum and manage downside risk with protective puts.


November 12, 2024


ACV Auctions Forecast

ACVA        ACV Auctions

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ACVA


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (-0.0)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.0)


BITO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BITO  ProShares Bitcoin Strategy (-0.0)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.01)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ACVA


OCSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OCSL  Oaktree Specialty Lending (-0.72)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.73)


JACK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JACK  Jack In The Box (-0.73)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.75)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)







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