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ADT Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Despite market uncertainty, ADT's partnerships and a potential recovery from previous declines signal a bullish outlook, particularly from technology integrations and increased demand for innovative security solutions.



Bearish Case: Current high implied volatility suggests investor fear and uncertainty regarding ADT's future, exacerbated by increasing competition from DIY security solutions that could impact market share.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of revenue growth from partnerships & tech integration.

2. 25% chance of continued market pressure from DIY competitors.

3. 15% chance of regulatory intervention affecting business operations.



Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread using ADT's $8.00 call options while selling $9.00 calls due to current high call volume. This strategy capitalizes on potential price recovery in 3-6 months, with limited risk and favorable odds of profit exceeding 70%.


November 17, 2024


ADT Forecast

ADT        ADT

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Assets that tend to move strongly with ADT


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KD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KD  Kyndryl (0.83)


EBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EBS  Emergent Biosolutions (0.81)


BJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BJ  BJ's Wholesale Club (0.8)


QQQM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   QQQM  Invesco Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II - Invesco NASDAQ 100 (0.79)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ADT


BWA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BWA  BorgWarner (0.0)


EDV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EDV  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (0.0)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.0)


NRDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NRDS  Nerdwallet (0.0)


MRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRK  Merck (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ADT


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.74)


CPRI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRI  Capri (-0.74)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.75)


COUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COUR  Coursera (-0.75)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.77)







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