BGS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Insider buying, a high dividend yield, and institutional interest (Vanguard) signal potential bullish outlook. The historical mean-reverting price action may favor a short-term rebound.


Bearish Case: Ongoing structural challenges, high implied volatility, and recent price declines (mean reversion) pose risks. Negative AI price forecast (-0.51%) and historical underperformance increase downside potential.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Continued decline (-10%): 50%.

2) Stagnation: 40%.

3) Turnaround (+10%): 10%. Predictions are based on competitive pressures, debt strain, recent insider activities, and historical trends.


Trading Oracle: Sell Aug 16, 2024, $9 call and buy Aug 16, 2024, $10 call. Credit spread exploits flat term structure and high IV. Short-term bearish bias within 40-day horizon leverages declining price trend and market skepticism. High reward:risk, positive edge.


July 10, 2024


B&G Foods Forecast

BGS      B&G Foods











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BGS



BAX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BAX  Baxter International (0.85)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (0.81)


CWH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWH  Camping World (0.8)


ALGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGN  Align Technology (0.8)


CLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLX  Clorox (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BGS



SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.0)


KBH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KBH  KB Home (-0.0)


OC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OC  Owens Corning (-0.0)


PHM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PHM  PulteGroup (-0.0)


UHS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UHS  Universal Health Services (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BGS



AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (-0.51)


UNH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNH  Unitedhealth (-0.56)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.56)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.57)


ARLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ARLP  Alliance Resource (-0.71)





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