AFL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AFL's impressive revenue growth and favorable interest rates bolster its potential for continued upward momentum. Strong financial fundamentals enhance confidence.




Bearish Case: Concerns over recent insider selling and elevated implied volatility signal potential headwinds. Reputational risks and mean-reverting tendencies limit upside.




Potential Outcomes: 70% chance of stable growth due to strong fundamentals. 30% chance of downside from insider activity and overvaluation concerns.




Trading Oracle: Opt for short-term bearish credit spreads. Sell deep out-of-the-money calls to leverage high implied volatility and market skepticism. Target a 30-day horizon for maximum premium capture as volatility normalizes. Focus on strikes above $110 for high reward:risk ratio.



February 13, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AFL



SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (0.93)


VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.91)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.9)


INSG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSG  Inseego (0.9)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (0.9)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AFL



DOX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOX  Amdocs (-0.0)


AZN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AZN  Astrazeneca (0.01)


SCHW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHW  Charles Schwab (-0.01)


GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (-0.01)


CRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNT  Ceragon Networks (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AFL



BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (-0.82)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.82)


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (-0.84)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.88)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.9)









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