AFL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Aflac's strong dividend growth and market position enhance investor confidence. Implied volatility backwardation suggests potential for upward price movement as uncertainty decreases HeliumHelium.




Bearish Case: High insider selling and negative investor sentiment could lead to downward pressure. Elevated implied volatility indicates potential market instability and further downside risks HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of mean-reversion leading to stability, 30% chance of upward momentum from current fundamentals, 20% risk of downturn from insider sales and sentiment Helium.




Trading Oracle: Sell out-of-the-money put credit spreads expiring in March, targeting the $95 strike. Leverage high implied volatility decay in the short term for premium capture, while maintaining a bullish bias due to backwardation.



January 14, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AFL



LTH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTH  Life Time (0.95)


XLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLP  Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (0.92)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.92)


RGLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGLD  Royal Gold (0.91)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AFL



BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.0)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (-0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.01)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.01)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AFL



EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.87)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.87)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.89)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.92)









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