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AFRM Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Affirm’s robust retailer partnerships and increased consumer adoption in the BNPL sector could drive revenue growth and market share expansion, highlighted by favorable volatility trends.

Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and competition, combined with rising interest rates, might compress margins and hinder profitability, with high implied volatility indicating potential price corrections.

Potential Outcomes: Partnership expansion boosts revenue (40%).
Regulatory hurdles constrain growth (30%).
Interest rate pressures lower margins (20%).
Volatility-driven price correction (10%).

April 13, 2025

Affirm Forecast

AFRM Affirm

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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UPST Upstart (0.92)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AFRM

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SNY Sanofi (-0.01)

HL Hecla Mining (0.01)

FUN Cedar Fair (0.02)

HBM Hudbay Minerals (-0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AFRM

GSL Global Ship Lease (-0.75)

EC Ecopetrol SA (-0.78)

DVN Devon Energy (-0.79)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.8)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.86)

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