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AGI Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: AGI's strategic acquisitions, sustained earnings growth, and an increase in institutional interest, combined with favorable volatility conditions, indicate potential for continued upward momentum. Current mean reversion suggests recovery from recent lows, bolstered by gold market dynamics.



Bearish Case: Market uncertainty with high implied volatility, coupled with potential operational challenges post-acquisition, signals risk of pullbacks. Historical mean reversion patterns and flattening term structure suggest caution, with geopolitical and market volatility concerns persisting.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Price stability due to acquisition synergies: 45%
  • Volatility-induced corrections: 35%
  • Growth propelled by investor sentiment: 15%
  • Sharp decline from geopolitical factors: 5%


April 19, 2025


Alamos Gold Forecast

AGI        Alamos Gold

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FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.82)


JNUG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNUG  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bu (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AGI


FLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLR  Fluor (0.0)


JDST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JDST  Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Be (0.01)


ROST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROST  Ross Stores (-0.02)


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.02)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGI


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (-0.83)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.83)


M Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   M  Macy's (-0.83)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.84)


ATKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATKR  Atkore (-0.88)







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