AGNC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: AGNC's high dividend yield (~14.9%), modest recent appreciation (13.3% in 90 days), and strong bullish risk profile (73% higher than bearish) signify potential upside for income investors.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility (41%) and recent heavy put trading suggest investor caution. Persistent negative long-term price trends (-55.4% from ten years ago) indicate underlying risks.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Moderate appreciation from dividends and book value improvement (40% chance).

2) Range-bound movement amid mixed indicators (35% chance).

3) Decline due to higher rates and volatility (25% chance).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish credit put spread. Sell 3 $9.5 AGNC puts and buy 4 $9 puts. This takes advantage of volatility skew, high probability (82%) and positive edge. Target near-term upside (~16 days) while managing risk dynamically.


July 18, 2024


AGNC Investment Forecast

AGNC      AGNC Investment











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ROKU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ROKU  Roku (0.0)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AGNC



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