VHT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: VHT's recent call options volume has risen significantly (76% over puts), indicating strong bullish sentiment. Additionally, higher implied volatility suggests traders expect larger price movements, potentially favoring an upward trend. Institutional interest remains steady as VHT approaches highs from previous periods, signaling confidence.


Bearish Case: Current high implied volatility (11.8% on near-term calls) reflects market uncertainty, suggesting potential corrections ahead. With VHT trading flat and a historical tendency to revert to the mean, downside risks remain considerable, especially given recent market reactions to healthcare sector headlines.


Potential Outcomes:

1. VHT rallies >5% (35% chance) driven by improved market sentiment.

2. VHT remains flat (45% chance) reflecting current market stability.

3. VHT declines <5% (20% chance) due to unfavorable economic news or sector-specific events.


Trading Oracle: Emphasize bullish strategies: consider a debit spread such as buying the VHT August 16, 2024 $280 calls and selling $290 calls. This allows capitalizing on expected volatility while limiting risk. Target a moderate holding period until late August for potential profits.


July 25, 2024


Vanguard Health Care Forecast

VHT      Vanguard Health Care











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VHT



XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (1.0)


CURE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CURE  Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X Shares (0.99)


XBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XBI  SPDR Biotech (0.96)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (0.96)


DDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDM  ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.95)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VHT



GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.0)


HR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HR  Healthcare Realty Trust (-0.0)


KNX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KNX  Knight-Swift Transportation (-0.0)


INSP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INSP  Inspire Medical Systems (-0.01)


SPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPT  Sprout Social (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VHT



SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.89)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.91)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.91)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.94)





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