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ALEX Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: ALEX's implied volatility suggests expectations of higher price movement, with historical return surfaces indicating a potential upswing. Targeting favorable earnings reports could push prices significantly higher.



Bearish Case: High implied volatilities indicate market skepticism; adverse economic conditions could trigger sharp sell-offs. Historical trends show considerable downside risk, especially if earnings disappoint.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Price stabilizes around $20 (40% chance).
  2. Bullish earnings cause price to surge towards $22 (30% chance).
  3. Market downturn results in a dip to $17 (30% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bullish debit spread by purchasing ALEX 12/20/2024 20.00 C while selling 22.50 C. Given the high implied volatility (500%), this strategy has a favorable risk/reward profile. Aim to capitalize on potential upward movements over the next month.


December 18, 2024


Alexander & Baldwin Forecast

ALEX        Alexander & Baldwin

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KIM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KIM  Kimco Realty (0.92)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.88)


BNL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNL  Broadstone Net Lease (0.87)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (0.86)


COMM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COMM  CommScope (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALEX


TNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNDM  Tandem Diabetes Care (0.0)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (-0.0)


OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (-0.0)


EOG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EOG  EOG Resources (0.0)


ALGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGT  Allegiant Travel (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALEX


ABNB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABNB  Airbnb (-0.83)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (-0.83)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (-0.84)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (-0.84)


SMCI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SMCI  Super Micro Computer (-0.89)







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