ALGT Forecast


Bullish Case: ALGT's historical mean-reverting tendency, low valuation, and analyst optimism indicate potential for rebound. Anticipated demand resurgence in H2 2024 could propel share price recovery above $52.50.


Bearish Case: Persistent pricing pressures, weak consumer spending, and high implied volatility suggest continued downside risk. Historical volatility and recent option volumes support bearish outlook, risk of further declines below $50.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Rebound due to macro recovery: 30%.

2. Continued decline due to pricing pressures: 40%.

3. Rangebound trading: 30%. Historical data and recent market weakness inform probabilities.


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July 18, 2024


Allegiant Travel Forecast

ALGT      Allegiant Travel











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TXG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXG  10x Genomics (0.93)


CSIQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CSIQ  Canadian Solar (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALGT



KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (0.0)


ADP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADP  Automatic Data Processing (0.01)


HBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBI  Hanesbrands (0.01)


AN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AN  Autonation (-0.01)


UVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVV  Universal (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALGT



LBRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LBRT  Liberty Oilfield Services (-0.85)


FTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTI  TechnipFMC (-0.86)


AM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AM  Antero Midstream (-0.86)


ACGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACGL  Arch (-0.87)


YCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCS  ProShares UltraShort Yen (-0.9)





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