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AMR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: AMR might rebound due to stabilizing oil prices coupled with a bullish investor sentiment reflected in increased trading volume and decreasing market uncertainty. This could instigate a price uplift towards previous highs.



Bearish Case: Continued low trading volumes and high put activity signal potential downward pressure on AMR's price, exacerbated by persistent market uncertainty and negative sentiment surrounding small-cap energy stocks.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% probability of stagnation around $210 as no significant catalysts emerge.
  • 30% chance of a rebound to $240 if oil prices rise significantly.
  • 30% chance of a drop towards $200 due to increased put volumes and market volatility.



Trading Oracle: Consider trading a put credit spread to capitalize on high implied volatility while targeting a $220 strike. Sell $220 puts and buy $210 puts, capturing premium with favorable odds of 70% for a solid risk/reward. Maintain a short-term outlook (30-45 days) to maximize potential gains with limited downside exposure.


December 19, 2024


Alta Mesa Resources Forecast

AMR        Alta Mesa Resources

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APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (0.87)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.87)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AMR


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (-0.0)


NXST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NXST  Nexstar Media (0.0)


BUD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BUD  Anheuser-Busch (0.0)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (0.01)


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AMR


EIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EIX  Edison International (-0.89)


MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (-0.89)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (-0.89)


NGD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NGD  New Gold (-0.91)


FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (-0.91)







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