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Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Bullish sentiment driven by potential enrollment spikes from new partnerships and a rising education market. The implied volatility suggests favorable conditions for upside trades. APEI's price may find support around $13.84 with significant upside potential.

Bearish Case: Continued market pressure from high volatility levels and underperformance in enrollment figures could trigger a sell-off. Economic challenges alongside potential insider selling pose risks for a further decline in stock price.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of a 20% price increase driven by new enrollment strategies and partnerships.

2. 25% chance of stagnation due to ongoing market conditions.

3. 45% chance of a 15% drop if economic conditions worsen and insider selling increases.

Trading Oracle: Given high implied volatility, consider a bullish approach using a long call spread strategy (buying APEI 12/20/2024 15.00 C and selling 20.00 C). This limits risk while capturing upside potential, capitalizing on expected volatility and improving sentiment surrounding educational initiatives.

October 10, 2024