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APLD Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Recent investments from Nvidia and solid earnings suggest robust growth potential. APLD's historically high volatility paired with positive sentiment may lead to a strong price rally in the near term, aligning with the current bullish options trading activity.



Bearish Case: Persistent high implied volatility indicates a market overreaction to past performance. Coupled with decreasing sentiment, there's a significant risk of price corrections, particularly if market conditions or company performance falter.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings surprise (30% chance) may drive stock up.

2. Broader tech market strength (25% chance) carries APLD higher.

3. Regulatory setback (20% chance) could dampen investor sentiment.

4. Increasing competition (25% chance) might suppress APLD's price.



Trading Oracle: Position for volatility; sell 1 $8.50 put and buy 2 $7.00 puts expiring in 9 days, capturing downside protection. With a 76% probability of profit and a potential return of 36% (229% annualized), this bullish, long volatility approach leverages APLD's high implied volatility effectively.


October 24, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with APLD


BW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BW  Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (0.76)


VNET Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNET  VNET (0.74)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (0.72)


AMBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMBA  Ambarella (0.71)


LITE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LITE  Lumentum (0.69)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to APLD


MT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MT  New York Shares (-0.0)


IVR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVR  Invesco Mortgage (-0.0)


HLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HLF  Herbalife Nutrition (0.0)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.0)


RJF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RJF  Raymond James Financial (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against APLD


TTEK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTEK  Tetra Tech (-0.65)


GES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GES  Guess (-0.66)


LYB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYB  LyondellBasell Industries (-0.68)


MPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPC  Marathon Petroleum (-0.7)


SWBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SWBI  Smith & Wesson Brands (-0.71)







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