AR Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: AR's backwardation and 77.9% yearly price increase suggest continued bullish momentum. Implied volatility backwardation indicates strong short-term interest HeliumHelium.




Bearish Case: High short-term implied volatility and 1% trading volume percentile raise stability concerns. Historical mean reversion might counteract recent gains HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Price increase from trading patterns: 50%
  • Neutral price action due to offsetting signals: 30%
  • Price decrease from mean reversion: 20%




Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish debit spread: Buy $41 calls, sell $42 calls expiring in 45 days. This leverages implied volatility backwardation and bullish sentiment, minimizing risk with capped losses. Focus on short-term gains as backwardation implies greater near-term price activity.



January 24, 2025


Antero Resources Forecast

AR        Antero Resources











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GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.72)


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MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (0.71)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (0.7)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AR



XLP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLP  Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)


TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.0)


INFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFA  Informatica (0.0)


ECPG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ECPG  Encore Capital Group (0.0)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AR



NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.7)


SGRY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SGRY  Surgery (-0.7)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.71)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (-0.76)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.84)









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