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ASML Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: ASML's strong technological position in EUV and AI demand boost long-term prospects. Despite past volatility, a rebound driven by high-end semiconductor orders is anticipated, with significant growth supported by sustained innovation and backlog.



Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions, particularly US-China dynamics and elevated valuations, pose significant risks. Potential export restrictions and market volatility could dampen demand and lead to downward price pressure, impacting earnings forecasts.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Continued Growth: 35% chance; driven by AI demand.
  • Geopolitical Decline: 30% chance; US-China tensions affect sales.
  • Neutral Movement: 35% chance; balanced by mean-reverting price action.



Trading Oracle:
A Bearish Short Volatility strategy is selected due to the geopolitical risks and elevated implied volatility. Execute by selling the $750 call and buying the $760 call, capturing potential downside. Strategy link: Bearish Short Volatility Strategy


March 22, 2025


New York Shares Forecast

ASML        New York Shares

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VAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VAL  Valaris (0.85)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ASML


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.0)


LAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LAC  Lithium Americas (-0.01)


UBER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBER  Uber (0.01)


STX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STX  Seagate Technology (-0.02)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ASML


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (-0.86)


ALSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALSN  Allison Transmission (-0.87)


RVLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RVLV  Revolve (-0.87)


MTB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTB  M & T (-0.88)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (-0.89)







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