AU Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: The bullish case centers on favorable market conditions, highlighted by increasing implied volatility trends for AU options, signaling heightened interest and potential upward price movements. Historical data shows a 35% historical upside over holding periods, indicating current stability in bullish sentiment.




Bearish Case: A bearish outlook arises from market uncertainties reflected in elevated implied volatility and the flat term structure, coupled with recent bearish trends in historical returns, indicating possible market corrections or negative sentiment playing out in the short term.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of sideways consolidation as volatility stabilizes.

2. 35% chance of bullish breakout from increasing implied volatility, driving prices above $34.

3. 25% chance of bearish reversal due to macroeconomic pressures, potentially driving prices below $29.




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October 22, 2024


AngloGold Ashanti Ltd Forecast

AU        AngloGold Ashanti Ltd











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