Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: AUR's strong partnerships, particularly with Uber, and the promising launch of autonomous vehicles suggest a robust growth momentum. High insider buying reinforces market confidence, making a bullish outlook plausible near near-term earnings.

Bearish Case: Potential regulatory hurdles and increased competition pose significant risks to AUR’s market position. Moreover, recent flat price action could indicate indecisiveness among investors, heightening the risk of a sell-off in adverse conditions.

Potential Outcomes:

• Successful autonomous truck launches (30% chance)
• Regulatory delays (25% chance)
• Significant insider buying impacts share price (20% chance)
• Increased competition from new entrants (15% chance)
• Negative earnings reports trigger sell-offs (10% chance)

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by purchasing the AUR $9 call option expiring December 20, 2024, and selling the $10 call. The high implied volatility (148.4%) indicates potential for sharp price movements, capturing upside with limited risk. Monitor for volatility decreases post-earnings.

December 10, 2024