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AVDL Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive FDA news on Lumryz for pediatric use is expected to drive significant revenue growth. Combined with a supportive volatility profile, AVDL may see substantial upward movement.



Bearish Case: Lingering litigation uncertainties and underperformance in market capture may negatively impact investor confidence, risking further price decline despite recent FDA approvals.



Potential Outcomes:
  • FDA pediatric approval boosts revenues (40% chance).
  • Patent litigation success enhances exclusivity (30%).
  • Market capture underperformance limits growth (20%).
  • Further payer endorsements increase accessibility (10%).



Trading Oracle: Consider entering a bullish debit spread by buying AVDL $10.00 calls and selling $12.50 calls, targeting April for expected volatility and potential upside. The underlying conditions favor high probability of profit (around 30%). Maintain tight risk management due to litigation concerns.


December 13, 2024


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