Bullish Case: AVIV may rebound as geopolitical tensions ease, leading to a favorable shift in investor sentiment. Historical returns suggest potential for strong growth over extended holding periods.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical instability continues to create uncertainty, weighing on investor confidence and potentially suppressing AVIV's price. Ongoing risks in international markets make for a cautious outlook.

Potential Outcomes:

• 25% chance of minor recovery driven by stabilization in the Middle East.
• 45% chance of prolonged stagnation due to ongoing conflicts.
• 20% chance of significant growth if peace negotiations succeed.
• 10% chance of sharp decline amid escalating military actions.

Trading Oracle: Sell bear credit spreads for a short-term bearish play, as geopolitical risks persist, maximizing premium collection. Conversely, consider debit spreads targeting a 6-month horizon if stabilization occurs. Maintain a flexible strategy based on sentiment shifts.

December 21, 2024