AVIV Forecast


Bullish Case: Strong recovery potential exists given the current geopolitical turmoil. Historical data suggests that after significant downturns, AVIV has rebounded well over 2-5 years, particularly when economic recovery aligns with stabilization in the region.


Bearish Case: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly after the drone strike in Tel Aviv and Israel's retaliatory actions, could lead to further instability. This may suppress investor confidence and hinder short-term performance, reflected in recent flat price action.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of moderate recovery driven by easing tensions.

2. 50% chance of stagnation as geopolitical risks persist.

3. 20% chance of significant growth if peace negotiations materialize amid improved economic conditions.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish strategy using debit spreads on AVIV, targeting a 6-month horizon as tensions might stabilize and create favorable conditions for growth. This approach provides high reward-to-risk potential, capitalizing on favorable historical return trends.


July 25, 2024


American Century ETF Trust - Avantis International Large Cap Value Forecast

AVIV      American Century ETF Trust - Avantis International Large Cap Value











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AVIV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AVIV



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AVIV



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.94)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.52)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.68)





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