Bullish Case: AVIV could benefit from improved geopolitical stability, potentially aligning with historical tendencies for recovery post-tension periods. Trends suggest moderate long-term growth potential.

Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions remain high, with recent events suggesting possible continued instability. Historical mean-reverting price action points to stagnation or minor declines.

Potential Outcomes: 45% chance of continued stagnation from geopolitical uncertainty; 25% chance of moderate recovery if tensions ease; 20% chance of minor decline from ongoing conflict; 10% chance of strong growth if geopolitical breakthroughs occur.

Trading Oracle: Deploy bear credit spreads over 3 months, harnessing current geopolitical volatility. Leverage Helium Short Volatility for high probability-of-profit due to expected stagnant or declining conditions. Adjust strategy rapidly if geopolitical conditions improve.

February 22, 2025