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AWR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent infrastructure investments and historical mean-reversion suggest potential for price recovery; AWR's low implied volatility indicates manageable downside risk.

Bearish Case: High put option volumes and macro uncertainties, including regulatory challenges, threaten continued price stagnation or decline.

Potential Outcomes: 30% AWR rallies on infrastructure success; 40% stability despite mixed signals; 30% decline amid regulatory issues.

Trading Oracle: Consider a debit call spread targeting the $80 strike expiring in June 2025. This leverages potential upside from infrastructure gains while limiting downside due to low current IV levels. Optimal for capturing moderate rallies.

February 18, 2025

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AWR American States Water

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AWR

PTGX Protagonist Therapeutics (0.84)

ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp (0.82)

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.82)

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.79)

SO Southern (0.79)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AWR

WB Weibo (0.0)

MNST Monster Beverage (-0.01)

GTLB Gitlab (0.01)

PTLO Portillos (-0.01)

WHR Whirlpool (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AWR

PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.66)

OVV Ovintiv (-0.68)

CORN Teucrium Corn (-0.68)

USAC USA Compression (-0.7)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.71)

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