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AWR Forecast

Price Forecast:

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: AWR could rally due to ongoing infrastructure investments and positive sentiment around water utility stocks, supported by historical recovery patterns from past downturns.

Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and high volatility from bearish sentiment in related sectors could drive AWR lower, particularly if infrastructure projects face delays or negative public reception.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance AWR rises to $90+ amid infrastructure boosts.

2. 50% chance for stability around $85 with market fluctuations.

3. 15% decline under regulatory pressures.

Trading Oracle: Consider a debit call spread for AWR targeting $90 expiration in early 2025. High implied volatility indicates potential upward moves, enhancing upside while managing limited downside risk. Capitalize on rising infrastructure investment sentiment and volatility spikes.

December 13, 2024

American States Water Forecast

AWR American States Water

Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AWR

VNQ Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.88)

EVGO EVgo (0.87)

RDFN Redfin (0.85)

XEL Xcel Energy (0.85)

COMM CommScope (0.85)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AWR

DDOG Datadog (-0.0)

TWO Two Harbors Investment (0.0)

BBAI BigBear.ai (0.0)

ASPN Aspen Aerogels (0.01)

ALGT Allegiant Travel (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AWR

OXY Occidental Petroleum (-0.83)

AAP Advance Auto Parts (-0.83)

SIMO Silicon Motion Technology (-0.84)

LRCX Lam Research (-0.86)

SMCI Super Micro Computer (-0.86)

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