AWR Forecast


Bullish Case: Increased insider buying signals confidence in AWR's recovery potential. infrastructure investments can bolster long-term revenue growth. Helium's projected volatility mismatch suggests a favorable environment for upward price movement.


Bearish Case: Current price stagnation and high implied volatilities on puts indicate skepticism about near-term growth. Market uncertainties may suppress price, particularly if infrastructure investments meet resistance from regulators.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 30% chance of AWR rising due to effective infrastructure development.

2. 50% likelihood of price stability amid market uncertainties.

3. 20% chance of downturn linked to negative regulatory impacts.


Trading Oracle: Implement a debit spread with long calls, targeting expiration in Q4 2024 given bullish indicators. This approach capitalizes on potential volatility increases while protecting against downside risks. Target $85 strike for high reward-risk ratio.


July 25, 2024


American States Water Forecast

AWR      American States Water











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AWR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.79)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.39)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AWR



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.39)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.66)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.79)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AWR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.79)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.63)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.39)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.66)





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