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BABA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Alibaba stands to benefit from China's stimulative economic measures, likely boosting consumer spending and enhancing sales growth, evidenced by improved market sentiment and increased trading volumes in call options.



Bearish Case: Heightened regulations and geopolitical tensions pose risks to Alibaba’s revenue stability, as observed in rising put option volumes and declining investor confidence in Chinese equities, potentially leading to significant price corrections.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Strong consumer recovery post-stimulus (40% chance).

2. Regulatory challenges impede growth, affecting revenue (30% chance).

3. Continued competition from rivals dampens market share (20% chance).

4. Major geopolitical disruptions impact operations (10% chance).



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October 18, 2024


Alibaba Forecast

BABA        Alibaba

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