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BABA Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: BABA's restructuring success and AI investments could restore investor confidence, especially if consumer spending rebounds in China, leading to improved earnings in 2025.



Bearish Case: Regulatory pressures and fierce competition continue to threaten BABA's growth, potentially overshadowing short-term gains as market volatility remains high.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Regulatory relief allows growth (40%);

2. Competition intensifies, reducing market share (30%);

3. AI initiatives yield unexpected revenue (20%);

4. Significant macroeconomic downturn (10%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread using BABA 90/92.50 call options expiring in January to leverage expected recovery. With high implied volatility and resistance around $90, this strategy balances risk while capturing upside potential as the stock navigates regulation and competition.


December 18, 2024


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