BABA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BABA’s AI and metaverse ventures show strong potential; combined with robust fundamentals and reduced regulatory pressures, the stock could rally.




Bearish Case: Persistent regulatory and geopolitical risks, along with increased competition, pose significant obstacles, limiting upside potential.




Potential Outcomes: AI and cloud growth drive market share (50%); regulatory/political headwinds dampen growth (30%); market recovery bolsters sales (20%).




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call debit spread using BABA 82.5/85 calls expiring in March 2025. This strategy exploits historically high implied vols, with favorable risk/reward given BABA’s mean-reverting tendencies and positive sentiment.



January 16, 2025


Alibaba Forecast

BABA        Alibaba











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