BABA Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BABA’s AI and metaverse ventures show strong potential; combined with robust fundamentals and reduced regulatory pressures, the stock could rally.




Bearish Case: Persistent regulatory and geopolitical risks, along with increased competition, pose significant obstacles, limiting upside potential.




Potential Outcomes: AI and cloud growth drive market share (50%); regulatory/political headwinds dampen growth (30%); market recovery bolsters sales (20%).




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish call debit spread using BABA 82.5/85 calls expiring in March 2025. This strategy exploits historically high implied vols, with favorable risk/reward given BABA’s mean-reverting tendencies and positive sentiment.



January 16, 2025


Alibaba Forecast

BABA        Alibaba











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DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.86)


SATS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SATS  EchoStar (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BABA



GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (0.0)


NEXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEXT  NextDecade (-0.0)


TALK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TALK  Talkspace (0.0)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (0.0)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BABA



SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.79)


NINE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NINE  Nine Energy Service (-0.8)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.81)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.81)


GO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GO  Grocery Outlet (-0.82)









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