BANC Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BANC's post-merger synergies and mean-reverting patterns suggest potential recovery. Recent sentiment hints at overreaction, presenting undervaluation and upside opportunity.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility in lower strikes and social sentiment reflect ongoing regional banking stress and potential downside risk due to financial instability and earnings misses.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Successful synergy realization: 50% (Price up 10%)
  • Ongoing financial stress: 30% (Price down 8%)
  • Regulatory challenges: 20% (Price stable)




Trading Oracle:

Consider the Bullish Long Volatility strategy with BANC's call options due to the flat term structure and mean-reversion potential. Buying and selling OOTM calls leverages implied volatility and a potential positive edge for profitable trades.



May 25, 2025


Banc of California Forecast

BANC        Banc of California











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PNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNC  PNC Financial Services (0.94)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (0.93)


HBAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBAN  Huntington Bancshares (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BANC



FE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FE  Firstenergy (0.0)


ALLY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALLY  Ally Financial (-0.0)


BSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSY  Bentley Systems (0.0)


BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.01)


GNTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GNTX  Gentex (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BANC



YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.47)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.48)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.5)


STNE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNE  StoneCo (-0.61)


SPXU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXU  ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500 (-0.8)









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