BHP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BHP's diversification into potash and copper aligns well with green energy trends, potentially driving growth. Market sentiment shows optimism, supported by mean-reverting historical prices.




Bearish Case: Legal challenges from the Mariana dam disaster and potential economic fallout from China pose risks. Declining iron ore demand may pressure profitability, alongside social and environmental scrutiny.




Potential Outcomes:

1) Legal resolution reduces risks (40%).

2) Green energy demand boosts prices (35%).

3) Economic volatility pressures stock (25%).




Trading Oracle: Bullish Short Volatility is suitable due to low implied volatility and mean-reverting prices. Selling ATM put options and buying OOTM puts capitalizes on normalizing conditions and potential China recovery.



April 23, 2025


BHP Group Limited Forecast

BHP        BHP Group Limited











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