Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Increased copper demand due to AI, alongside BHP's extensive projects, positions the company for growth. Anticipated price recovery driven by stabilization in production and M&A activity adds optimism.

Bearish Case: Legal risks from the Mariana dam lawsuit and fluctuations in iron ore prices create downside pressures. Continuous production challenges and geopolitical instability could stunt recovery efforts.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance of price recovery to $58 in 30 days.

2. 30% chance declining to $50 amid ongoing legal challenges.

3. 30% chance of sideways trading around current levels.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread strategy, purchasing $55 call and selling $57.50 call options, targeting a recovery in the medium term. This plays into positive copper demand trends while limiting risk exposure. Monitor volatility levels for adjusting positions accordingly.

November 13, 2024