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BHP Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: BHP's strategic focus on copper and nickel positions it well for growth in the renewable energy space. The current mean-reverting historical price surface and low implied volatilities suggest potential for positive price movement, especially with recent optimism in China recovery.



Bearish Case: Legal challenges, declining iron ore demand, and unfavorable market conditions could pressure BHP prices downward. Elevated short-term volatilities and social media concerns about ESG compliance reinforce bearish outlook. Current market uncertainties further heighten risks.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance of slight recovery to $54 driven by uptick in copper demand.

2) 35% chance of a decline to $48 amid legal pressures.

3) 25% chance of staying within $50-$52 reflecting market stability.



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March 18, 2025


BHP Group Limited Forecast

BHP        BHP Group Limited

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BHP


RIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RIO  Rio Tinto (0.94)


COPX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COPX  Global X Funds - Global X Copper Miners (0.89)


HUN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUN  Huntsman (0.88)


DOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOW  Dow (0.86)


GOGL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GOGL  Golden Ocean (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BHP


BXMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BXMT  Blackstone Mortgage (-0.0)


RMBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RMBS  Rambus (0.01)


LDOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LDOS  Leidos (-0.01)


RARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RARE  Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (0.03)


HAS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAS  Hasbro (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BHP


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.76)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.76)


BTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BTI  British American Tobacco (-0.77)


AVXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVXL  Anavex Life Sciences (-0.82)


BKSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BKSY  BlackSky Technology (-0.85)







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