BHP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BHP's investments in green energy and copper, supported by robust call volume, indicate potential for price resurgence despite current undervaluation. Mean-reverting price action may sustain upward momentum.




Bearish Case: Ongoing legal challenges and declining iron ore demand highlight significant downside risk. Prevailing backwardation and Helium's volatility premium suggest market skepticism, potentially reinforcing bearish sentiment.




Potential Outcomes: 35% chance BHP hovers around $52-54; 40% potential dip to $48 amid legal fears; 25% chance recovery to $56 if demand stabilizes. Volatility remains a critical factor.




Trading Oracle: Trade a bullish debit spread: buy $50 call, sell $55 call expiring in 60 days. Leverage mean reversion and institutional interest. Volatility skew suggests upside potential. High reward:risk ratio with limited downside. Probability of profit bolstered by recent demand forecasts.



February 18, 2025


BHP Group Limited Forecast

BHP        BHP Group Limited











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