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BIBL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: BIBL's implied volatility surface suggests stability, and its historical returns show strong likelihood of positive performance, particularly over longer holding periods.



Bearish Case: The underlying volatility in certain strikes hints at potential market uncertainty, and recent price action showing mean-reverting behavior may signal caution for aggressive long positions.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued gradual uptrend (40%).

2. Temporary correction with potential for recovery (35%).

3. Further market downturn due to external factors (25%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread with BIBL 42/44 Calls expiring in April. This leverages moderate implied volatility at these strikes and aligns with historical return patterns. The setup offers high reward-to-risk dynamics given potential stability and moderate upward movement.


January 23, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BIBL


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.96)


UDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDOW  ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.94)


DDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DDM  ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.94)


SSO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SSO  ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.92)


VOO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VOO  Vanguard S&P 500 (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BIBL


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (0.0)


FREY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FREY  FREYR Battery (0.01)


OLED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OLED  Universal Display (0.01)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (-0.01)


MMS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MMS  Maximus (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BIBL


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.76)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.76)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.79)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.79)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)







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