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BLDR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: BLDR's stable earnings growth coupled with increased institutional support suggests resilience. With a flat term structure and adequate market liquidity, a minor upswing in housing demand could drive prices higher, supported by favorable macroeconomic trends.



Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility and declining market confidence could signal potential downturns. Deteriorating housing market conditions, combined with weakening sales, may prompt short-term price volatility and downward adjustments in earnings forecasts.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued earnings expansion (40%);

2. Further drop in net sales due to housing pressures (30%);

3. Market recovery benefiting BLDR (20%);

4. Strategic acquisitions boosting growth (10%).



Trading Oracle: Execute a bull call spread: buy the $180 call and sell the $190 call. This capitalizes on a modest upside with limited risk, given current implied volatility pricing and potential for a market rebound. Anticipate 32% odds for a profitable outcome, with a potential return of 253%.


November 13, 2024


Builders Firstsource Forecast

BLDR        Builders Firstsource

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CRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRM  Salesforce.Com (0.81)


NDSN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NDSN  Nordson (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BLDR


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SONY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONY  Sony Group Corporation (-0.0)


FUTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FUTU  Futu (0.0)


AU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AU  AngloGold Ashanti Ltd (0.0)


XEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XEL  Xcel Energy (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BLDR


ACLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACLS  Axcelis (-0.61)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (-0.61)


HUM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUM  Humana (-0.65)


BE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BE  Bloom Energy (-0.67)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (-0.7)







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