BP Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: BP is poised for growth with improved oil demand forecasts and strategic investments in renewables, which could foster investor confidence and stock growth.




Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges and litigation risks pose headwinds, with a shift back to fossil fuels showing potential long-term profitability pressures.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Oil demand boosts profits (40%)

2. Regulatory/legal difficulties harm business (35%)

3. Stable with upward bias (25%)




Trading Oracle: Use Bullish Short Volatility: Selling ATM puts and buying OOTM puts optimally captures edge with market volatility patterns showing favorability toward lower equites risk.



March 06, 2025










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with BP



EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (0.92)


AVNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVNW  Aviat Networks (0.91)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.9)


OXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OXY  Occidental Petroleum (0.89)


DVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DVN  Devon Energy (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BP



BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (-0.0)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (-0.02)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (-0.02)


NEXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEXT  NextDecade (-0.03)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BP



KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.9)


RKLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RKLB  Rocket Lab USA (-0.91)


GVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GVA  Granite Construction (-0.91)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.91)


TRUP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRUP  Trupanion (-0.92)









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