BRK.B Forecast


Bullish Case: Berkshire Hathaway's robust diversified holdings, significant cash reserves, and strategic investments like Occidental Petroleum position it for growth, particularly in resilient sectors like energy and insurance. The historical data shows a high likelihood of strong positive returns over short to medium holding periods.


Bearish Case: Potential economic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and leadership transitions post-Buffett could negatively impact Berkshire’s diversified portfolio. Its recent mean-reverting price action underscores the risk of stagnation, while concentrated tech holdings increase vulnerability to sector downturns.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued steady growth driven by strategic acquisitions and diversified portfolio (60%).

2. Limited growth due to economic and competitive challenges (30%).

3. Downside from geopolitical or significant sector underperformance (10%). Historical resilience and diversified holdings increase positive outcomes' probability.


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish short volatility strategy: Sell near-term calls at $440, buy calls at $446 with a 10-day expiration. This leverages current mean-reverting price action and flat term structure, offering high reward and mild risk in aligning with BRK.B’s consistent historical performance. Follow-up and reassess near expiry.


July 16, 2024


Berkshire Hathaway Forecast

BRK.B      Berkshire Hathaway











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XLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.94)


IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.94)


SPYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYV  SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value (0.93)


VYM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VYM  Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to BRK.B



GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (0.0)


GPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPN  Global Payments (0.0)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.01)


FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (0.01)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against BRK.B



SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.89)


VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (-0.89)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.91)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)


DXD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DXD  ProShares UltraShort Dow30 (-0.92)





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