BXMT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BXMT's strong 13% dividend yield, diversified portfolio, and implied upward price support offer a compelling bullish argument. Historical returns show positive holding, reinforcing bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Credit concerns from high inflation and interest rates, combined with significant office property exposure, suggest potential downward pressure. Increased loan loss reserves point to elevated risk.


Potential Outcomes: 65% chance BXMT retains strong dividend due to diversification and management, 25% risk from office exposure leading to declines, 10% potential boost from rising net interest income.


Trading Oracle: Sell short-term OTM puts (e.g., $17.0 strike) to capture premiums, taking advantage of flat term structure and mean-reverting price action. This strategy balances modest bullish sentiment and high liquidity, maximizing returns from stability or slight bullish moves over a 30 to 60-day horizon.


July 03, 2024


Blackstone Mortgage Forecast

BXMT      Blackstone Mortgage











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Anticorrelated Assets

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