BXMT Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: BXMT enjoys robust dividend coverage, diversification and strong management. Potential rate cuts and returning real estate market liquidity, strong historical returns as documented, provide a favorable backdrop for future growth.


Bearish Case: Exposure to troubled office properties, high leverage, and short seller attention may exacerbate credit issues in looming economic uncertainty. The historical significant drop in price and Helium’s bearish outlook further enhance risks.


Potential Outcomes: 60% chance BXMT maintains dividends with strong coverage. 30% risk of decline due to office sector woes and credit issues. 10% chance of boost from changing rate environment.


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May 08, 2024


Blackstone Mortgage Forecast

BXMT        Blackstone Mortgage
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)











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WW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WW  WW International (0.76)



Uncorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets with little price relationship to BXMT



EXEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXEL  Exelixis (-0.0)


RXRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RXRX  Recursion Pharmaceuticals (0.0)


LSXMK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LSXMK  Liberty Media Corp. (Tracking Stock - SiriusXM) Series C (0.0)


CFLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CFLT  Confluent (0.0)


TX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TX  Ternium S.A. - (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Stock Forecasts

Assets that tend to move strongly against BXMT



VITL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VITL  Vital Farms (-0.67)


IDT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IDT  IDT Corp. - (-0.69)


IMPP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IMPP  Imperial Petroleum (-0.7)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (-0.7)


MRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MRK  Merck (-0.71)





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