CAR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Avis Budget's strong Q1 2024 results, burgeoning travel demand, and robust fleet utilization indicate resilience and potential further growth.


Bearish Case: Ongoing legal and insider trading issues, combined with broader market volatility and a significant negative price return over the past year, threaten continued decline.


Potential Outcomes:

1) Management resolves issues, leading to recovery (35%).

2) Persistent legal troubles and market volatility drive further decline (40%).

3) Business stabilizes with minor fluctuations (25%).


Trading Oracle: Bearish short volatility strategy advised: Sell the $111 call and buy the $116 call expiring in 9 days. Helium model indicates 75% profitability, exploiting high volatility to maximize time decay and manage risk. Enter immediately, aiming for high edge strategy return.


June 27, 2024


Avis Budget Forecast

CAR      Avis Budget











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RC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RC  Ready (0.92)


PLL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PLL  Piedmont Lithium (0.92)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.91)


FLGT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLGT  Fulgent Genetics (0.91)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.91)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CAR



TEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEAM  Atlassian (0.0)


NVS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NVS  Novartis (0.0)


CNP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNP  Centerpoint Energy (-0.0)


BBAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAI  BigBear.ai (0.0)


OMER Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OMER  Omeros (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CAR



SFM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFM  Sprouts Farmers Market (-0.9)


MPLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPLX  MPLX (-0.9)


ANF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ANF  Abercrombie & Fitch (-0.9)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.9)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (-0.9)





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