NVS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Novartis's expanding drug portfolio, recent earnings boost, and promising pipeline forecast sustained growth.


Bearish Case: Ongoing patent disputes, legal challenges, and regulatory risks might hinder Novartis's growth trajectory.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Commercial success of new therapies (65%).

2. Legal and patent struggles impacting earnings (35%).

3. Competitive setbacks (20%).


Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish short volatility strategy expiring in ~60 days. Sell 2 $110.0 puts and buy 3 $105.0 puts. Positive edge seen in current IV surface and historical returns. High probability of profit with attractive R:R.


July 23, 2024










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