Bullish Case: Novartis recently secured several regulatory approvals, including a sixth for Cosentyx [Endpoints] and successful results for protocols involving rare kidney conditions [Endpoints] and multiple sclerosis [pharmaceutical-technology.com]. The company's strategic acquisitions [koreabiomed.com, biospace.com] and partnerships [Endpoints] bring a potentially robust pipeline.


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Bearish Case: Legal disputes with Takeda regarding alleged trade secret theft [Endpoints, fiercepharma.com] have surfaced, potentially disturbing Novartis’s operations. Also, certain drugs, like Pluvicto, showed questionable overall survival results in trials [clinicaltrialsarena.com].


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Takeaway: While currently grappling with a legal dispute [Endpoints], Novartis shows an aggressive strategy in its segment consolidation through acquisitions, partnerships, and key medicines development [Endpoints, koreabiomed.com, biospace.com, pharmaceutical-technology.com], making it a potentially stable choice, but one should monitor unfolding events closely.


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Potential Outcomes:

1) Successful Ofatumumab phase III success: 84% based on GlobalData [pharmaceutical-technology.com]. 2) Legal resolution in the Takeda case: Hard to accurately predict probability due to limited information. 3) Favourable review of bluebird bio’s gene therapy by Dec 20, leading to fast-tracking Novartis’ drugs: 50% (presuming binary outcome) [Endpoints]. 4) Successful development and commercialisation of CKD-510, given past phase success: 75% [koreabiomed.com]. 5) Complete development and launch of remibrutinib for chronic spontaneous urticaria: 80% given successful sample trial data [Endpoints].


November 14, 2023


Novartis Forecast

[NVS]  Novartis
Price Forecast: NEUTRAL    Price Action: MEAN REVERTING (?)



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