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NVS Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Recent FDA approvals and strategic investments highlight growth potential, while low implied volatility suggests market stability.



Bearish Case: Patent expiration risks and backwardation in implied volatility indicate potential challenges, with looming legal threats impacting sentiment.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of growth from strategic drug approvals and manufacturing expansions.
  • 30% risk from patent expirations and legal challenges.
  • 10% chance of competitive pressures affecting market share.


April 13, 2025


Novartis Forecast

NVS        Novartis

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KO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KO  Coca-Cola (0.84)


AMGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMGN  AMGEN (0.83)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.82)


XLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLV  Health Care Select Sector SPDR (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NVS


TW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TW  Tradeweb Markets (0.0)


TPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TPC  Tutor Perini (0.0)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)


XRAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRAY  DENTSPLY Sirona (0.0)


  FERG   (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVS


PCOR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PCOR  Procore (-0.76)


HUBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUBS  HubSpot (-0.76)


FRSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRSH  Freshworks (-0.77)


TTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TTI  Tetra Technologies (-0.77)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.8)







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