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CDC Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increasing focus on impactful health initiatives and elevated public trust could boost CDC’s performance, supported by favorable historical volatility and current pricing trends.



Bearish Case: Ongoing public skepticism and recent controversies, along with low historical returns, indicate potential downside risks, which are exacerbated by uncertain regulatory environments.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Public trust recovery (30%)
  2. Successful health initiatives (25%)
  3. Regulatory scrutiny increases (20%)
  4. Covid resurgence impacts performance (15%)
  5. New health crises emerge (10%)



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish credit spread strategy on CDC, such as selling a bear put spread on 62/63 put options. High implied vol and moderate price stability favor this low-risk approach for mid-term profit, complemented by the current price trends and market expectations.


January 29, 2025


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CDC


EVRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVRG  Evergy (0.95)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (0.95)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (0.94)


DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.94)


MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CDC


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.0)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.01)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.01)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.01)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CDC


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.86)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (-0.87)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.88)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.88)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)







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