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CDC Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Positive sentiment around health initiatives and restored public trust could drive CDC prices above $65, fueled by high implied volatility and optimistic historical return patterns.



Bearish Case: Persistent public skepticism, particularly surrounding COVID responses, may pressure CDC prices below $60. Recent controversies and mixed health outcomes add to the uncertainty.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Successful health initiatives boost trust (30%).
  2. Ongoing public skepticism affects sentiment (25%).
  3. Mid-level COVID cases lead to renewed scrutiny (20%).
  4. Market volatility remains elevated (15%).
  5. Heightened regulatory scrutiny damages reputation (10%).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish long call spread, buying the CDC 66.00/67.00 calls, capitalizing on elevated implied volatility. This strategy leverages potential upside amid market uncertainty and positive health narrative, aiming for quick profits with favorable risk/reward ratios.


December 18, 2024


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SPLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLV  Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.97)


CRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRS  Carpenter Technology (0.96)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CDC


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.02)


PENN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PENN  Penn National Gaming (0.02)


BHVN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BHVN  Biohaven Pharmaceutical (0.03)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (0.03)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CDC


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)


DLTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DLTR  Dollar Tree (-0.91)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.91)


CABA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CABA  Cabaletta Bio (-0.92)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)







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