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CDC Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increasing focus on impactful health initiatives and elevated public trust could boost CDC’s performance, supported by favorable historical volatility and current pricing trends.



Bearish Case: Ongoing public skepticism and recent controversies, along with low historical returns, indicate potential downside risks, which are exacerbated by uncertain regulatory environments.



Potential Outcomes:
  1. Public trust recovery (30%)
  2. Successful health initiatives (25%)
  3. Regulatory scrutiny increases (20%)
  4. Covid resurgence impacts performance (15%)
  5. New health crises emerge (10%)



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish credit spread strategy on CDC, such as selling a bear put spread on 62/63 put options. High implied vol and moderate price stability favor this low-risk approach for mid-term profit, complemented by the current price trends and market expectations.


January 29, 2025


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