Bullish Case: Increased consumer acceptance and regulatory changes may lead to a rebound in Canopy Growth's stock. New product launches could revitalize sales, supported by strategic asset sales that stabilize finances.

Bearish Case: Ongoing financial instabilities and high debt levels suggest a high risk of insolvency. Continuous regulatory challenges and mediocre market response could perpetuate the downward trajectory in stock performance.

Potential Outcomes:

• 40% chance of insolvency due to sustained losses leading to bankruptcy.
• 30% chance of a turnaround stemming from strategic asset restructurings.
• 20% chance of a favorable merger/acquisition.
• 10% chance of recovery through regulatory reforms and market expansion.

Trading Oracle: Adopt a long volatility strategy with a debit spread by buying the CGC 12/06/2024 $4.00 calls and selling CGC 12/06/2024 $5.50 calls. This engages with elevated implied volatility and leverages potential recovery while minimizing risk exposure during uncertain market conditions.

November 28, 2024