CIB Forecast


Bullish Case: CIB call options trading volume is significantly higher indicating bullish investor sentiment. Price has rebounded 5.7% over two years, and future volatility skew suggests stability.


Bearish Case: Implied volatility is high, signaling uncertainty. Price is down 35.5% over five years and recent short-term trends are negative. Competitive pressures remain a concern.


Potential Outcomes: 50% chance of 10% near-term rebound; 20% chance of stable prices given demand; 30% chance of 10-15% decline if competitive pressures and macro conditions worsen.


Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread with long $35 call and short $40 call expiring in Dec 2024. High volume and implied volatility suggest potential for profit as market stabilizes or improves. Estimated holding period: 6 months.


June 30, 2024


Bancolombia S.A. - Forecast

CIB      Bancolombia S.A. -











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Assets that tend to move strongly with CIB



EFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFA  BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (0.95)


EWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWG  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Germany (0.95)


IWD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWD  iShares Russell 1000 Value (0.95)


VYM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VYM  Vanguard High Dividend Yield Indx (0.94)


XLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLF  Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CIB



GUSH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GUSH  Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. (0.0)


UA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UA  Under Armour (0.0)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.0)


ALGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALGN  Align Technology (0.0)


ZROZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZROZ  PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CIB



SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (-0.89)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.9)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.92)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.92)





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