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CIM Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: CIM's implied volatility shows higher estimates compared to the market, suggesting potential upward price movement as investor sentiment strengthens. Recent price stabilization around $14.80 indicates a possible rebound if positive catalysts arise.



Bearish Case: Implied volatility remains high, indicating persistent market uncertainty. Recent flat price action and low trading volumes suggest potential for continued price declines amid economic pressures and lack of new investor interest.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price recovery to $15 with 40% chance: driven by positive sentiment or earnings news.

2. Continued stagnation around $14 with 35% chance: further economic pressures.

3. Volatility spike reaching $17 with 25% chance: major market events boost trading activity.



Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread by buying the December 20, 2024, $15 Call and selling the $16 Call. This strategy leverages potential upward movement in CIM while utilizing current elevated volatility levels. Target to realize the upside within the next two months with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.


November 14, 2024


Chimera Investment Forecast

CIM        Chimera Investment

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CIM


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (0.92)


NYT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NYT  New York Times Co. (0.92)


SRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRE  Sempra Energy (0.87)


CDNA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDNA  Caredx (0.87)


ALNY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ALNY  Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CIM


REAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REAL  Therealreal (0.0)


AMAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMAT  Applied Materials (-0.01)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.01)


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.01)


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CIM


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.88)


SONO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONO  Sonos (-0.88)


TRIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRIP  TripAdvisor (-0.89)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (-0.89)


PBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PBF  PBF Energy (-0.89)







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