CMC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CMC's fundamentals remain strong with potential sector growth. Mean-reversion patterns support recovery Helium. Strategic investments and optimistic social sentiment may drive price Helium.




Bearish Case: AI forecasts negative, coupled with high P/B ratio, suggest overvaluation Helium. Implied volatility backwardation and low trading volume indicate potential for downside HeliumHelium.




Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of recovery aligning with sector trends. 35% chance of decline due to macroeconomic pressures like steel price fluctuations. 25% neutral staying around $49. HeliumHelium




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish short volatility strategy using credit spreads. Sell March $55 calls, buy $57.5 calls, expiring in 61 days. Current backwardation and negative AI forecast bolster bearish edge. Manage risk for high reward/risk. Optimal for mean-reverting behavior. High implied volatility provides a 65% probability of profit.



January 08, 2025


Commercial Metals Forecast

CMC        Commercial Metals











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CMC



HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.56)


HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (0.53)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.5)


OTIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OTIS  Otis Worldwide (0.5)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.49)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMC



TWO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWO  Two Harbors Investment (0.0)


AMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AMC  AMC Entertainment (0.0)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (-0.0)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (0.0)


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMC



BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.31)


RVNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RVNC  Revance Therapeutics (-0.32)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.34)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (-0.37)


CALX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CALX  Calix (-0.49)









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