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CMC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Expectations of increased construction demand and favorable earnings may drive CMC prices higher, bolstered by solid operational performance and dividend support.



Bearish Case: Concerns over elevated P/B ratios and potential negative earnings revisions could lead to price declines, especially if macroeconomic conditions worsen.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Price jumps 10% following strong earnings (40% probability).

2. Price falls 15% due to bearish market sentiment (35% probability).

3. Stabilization around $54 with no significant news (25% probability).



Trading Oracle: Consider selling bearish credit call spreads using 2 $55 calls and buying 3 $57.5 calls, focusing on short-term trades. This takes advantage of the short volatility dynamics while retaining high profit odds, targeting a potential return of 24% based on market conditions.


November 03, 2024


Commercial Metals Forecast

CMC        Commercial Metals

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CMC


EMR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EMR  Emerson Electric (0.84)


STLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STLD  Steel Dynamics (0.81)


VDE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VDE  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Energy (0.78)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.76)


CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.71)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMC


X Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   X  United States Steel (0.0)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.0)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (0.0)


CLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLF  Cleveland-Cliffs (-0.0)


TIGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TIGR  UP Fintech (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMC


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.56)


SCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCO  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.57)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.62)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.63)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (-0.78)







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