CMC Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: CMC's strength in the steel industry and positive fiscal reports may drive recovery, with volatility decreasing over time, hinting at stability.




Bearish Case: High P/B ratio, bearish AI forecast, and declining steel prices suggest potential underperformance and downside risk.




Potential Outcomes: There is a 30% chance of recovery due to positive sector sentiment, 50% chance of decline with bearish indicators, and 20% chance of stability amid volatility.




Trading Oracle: Execute a bearish short volatility strategy. Sell March 55 calls, buy 57.5 calls, expiring in 45 days. Leverage backwardation in implied volatility with 81% profit odds and 17% potential return, focusing on mean-reversion.



February 05, 2025


Commercial Metals Forecast

CMC        Commercial Metals











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CMC



  FERG   (0.74)


HCC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCC  Warrior Met Coal (0.58)


AL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AL  Air Lease Corp (0.56)


DAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAR  Darling Ingredients (0.51)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.51)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CMC



MLI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MLI  Mueller Industries (0.0)


CBRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CBRE  CBRE (-0.0)


COOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COOP  Mr. Cooper (-0.0)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.0)


CMPO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMPO  CompoSecure (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CMC



HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.29)


TSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TSAT  Telesat Corp (-0.29)


PSNL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSNL  Personalis (-0.3)


BOIL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BOIL  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.34)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (-0.38)









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