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CMG Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Renewed focus on digital innovation and store expansion could boost CMG's growth, especially given the strong customer loyalty and positive social sentiment.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and recent price declines suggest overvaluation concerns. Labor issues and rising costs may pressure margins further, risking a downside.



Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of correction due to overvaluation. 30% potential growth from digital expansion and customer loyalty. 30% risk of stagnation as competitors intensify.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a short-term bearish credit spread strategy targeting strikes slightly out-of-the-money, amidst high volatility and mean-reverting price action. This approach capitalizes on current backwardation in volatility and range-bound expectations.


January 31, 2025


Chipotle Mexican Grill Forecast

CMG        Chipotle Mexican Grill

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