Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: CNC's potential for recovery is bolstered by recent insider buying and strategic refocusing on core markets. Positive sentiment around upcoming earnings and successful Medicaid management can drive share price up significantly. Historical trends also support a bullish outlook.

Bearish Case: CNC faces challenges from ongoing legal disputes and market skepticism following recent layoffs. This, compounded by high volatility and potential slowing enrollments, may keep prices under pressure, possibly leading to further declines.

Potential Outcomes:

• 60% - Successful strategic refocus leads to improved profitability and stock appreciation.
• 25% - Continued investor concerns over operational challenges impact stock negatively.
• 15% - Market volatility and regulatory scrutiny hinder recovery.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread, buying the CNC 12/27/2024 $60 call and selling the $65 call. With low implied volatility and positive market sentiment, this strategy captures upside potential while managing risk effectively, targeting gains over the next month.

December 21, 2024