CNI Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Recent investments and strategic initiatives enhance CNI's growth potential. Historical returns suggest a moderate upside despite volatility.




Bearish Case: Continued labor disputes and operational disruptions present downside risks. High implied volatility forecasts increased uncertainty and possible declines.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Recovery from labor disputes: 35%
  • Prolonged disruptions: 40%
  • Operational improvements: 25%




Trading Oracle: Execute a short volatility strategy with credit spreads, selling CNI 90 puts and buying 85 puts expiring in 60 days. The aim is to leverage mean reversion signals and capitalize on resolved labor tensions.



December 26, 2024


Canadian National Railway Forecast

CNI        Canadian National Railway











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CNI



GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (-0.01)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.01)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.02)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CNI



KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.85)


VIRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIRT  Virtu Financial (-0.86)


GLNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLNG  Golar Lng (-0.86)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.87)


ATGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATGE  Adtalem Global Education (-0.88)









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