COF Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: COF's robust underwriting, consumer credit stability, and strategic acquisitions foster optimism. Solid financial performance shows resilience against market volatility.




Bearish Case: Flat options term structure, declining trading volume, and increased credit loss concerns signal potential downside. Regulatory headwinds add further risk.




Potential Outcomes: Continuation of stable credit metrics (40%), regulatory headwinds lead to price drop (30%), market stabilizes without major movement (30%).




Trading Oracle: Execute a bear call spread using out-of-the-money options expiring in April. The flat volatility structure favors short positions. Target high implied volatility for profit, with an exit strategy before potential bullish reversal.



January 28, 2025


Capital One Financial Forecast

COF        Capital One Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COF



PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.87)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.87)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.87)


KBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KBE  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR S&P (0.86)


CAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAT  Caterpillar (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COF



HAE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HAE  Haemonetics (-0.0)


FLNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNC  Fluence Energy (-0.01)


KDP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KDP  Keurig Dr Pepper (-0.01)


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (-0.01)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COF



BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.72)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.73)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (-0.73)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.78)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)









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