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COF Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: COF's acquisition of Discover and consistent historical returns suggest long-term growth. Implied volatility indicates bullish sentiment as traders anticipate positive outcomes.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and insider skepticism may point to potential credit issues post-acquisition. Any regulatory hurdles could stall growth, impacting investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes: Mean reversion likely with 35% probability of moderate appreciation, and 30% chance of decline if economic pressures increase.



Trading Oracle: Utilize a [Bullish Long Volatility](https://heliumtrades.com/forecast/COF/cheap-convexity/call) strategy due to increased bullish risk and volatile sentiment. Buy OOTM calls and sell fewer further OOTM calls, taking advantage of the expected positive news flow and potential upside surprises.


February 26, 2025


Capital One Financial Forecast

COF        Capital One Financial

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COF


DFS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFS  Discover Financial Services (0.93)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.89)


LYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYV  Live Nation Entertainment (0.88)


IWP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IWP  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth (0.88)


AXP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXP  American Express (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COF


ESTC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ESTC  Elastic (-0.0)


ENVX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ENVX  Enovix (0.0)


BZH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BZH  Beazer Homes USA (0.01)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.01)


ABR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABR  Arbor Realty (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COF


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.75)


FRO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FRO  Frontline (-0.77)


RWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RWM  ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.77)


ASML Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASML  New York Shares (-0.77)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.84)







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