COF Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: COF's technology advancements and positive sentiment underscore potential for growth. Lower interest rates and strategic diversification efforts can spark a rally.




Bearish Case: High implied volatility, legal issues, and insider selling may drive COF downward. Economic fears and increased credit losses add risk to current valuation.




Potential Outcomes: Continuation of stagnation (30%), upward momentum if bullish narratives take hold (35%), or further decline due to negative sentiment (35%).




Trading Oracle: Utilize a credit spread to capitalize on COF's high implied volatility. Implement a bear call spread using out-of-the-money options due in February 2025 focusing on elevated volatility and negative sentiment likelihood.



December 24, 2024


Capital One Financial Forecast

COF        Capital One Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COF



PH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PH  Parker-Hannifin (0.87)


UNM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UNM  Unum (0.86)


OWL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OWL  Blue Owl (0.86)


CINF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CINF  Cincinnati Financial (0.84)


VTV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTV  Vanguard Value (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COF



SRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRPT  Sarepta Therapeutics (-0.0)


DQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DQ  Daqo New Energy (0.0)


CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.01)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (-0.01)


BNO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BNO  United States Commodity Funds LLC - United States Brent Crude Oil (0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COF



BCE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCE  BCE (-0.71)


CNXC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CNXC  Concentrix (-0.73)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.74)


BIIB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIIB  Biogen (-0.77)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)









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