Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: The bullish case for COMB hinges on anticipated infrastructure investments and recovery in commodity demand, potentially lifting prices towards $25. Historical volatility indicates a recovery trend could emerge, supported by emerging economic developments.

Bearish Case: The bearish case is bolstered by ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, which could drive prices down towards $17. The high implied volatility suggests market fear, implying significant downside risk if economic conditions worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Stabilization around $20 (35% probability).

2. Moderate recovery to $25 driven by demand (25% probability).

3. Decline towards $17 due to economic pressures (40% probability). Outcomes were derived from historical price return relationships and implied volatility trends.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bear put spread by buying COMB 19.00 P and selling COMB 17.00 P, capitalizing on high implied volatility while minimizing risk exposure. This strategy is indicative of a bearish outlook, aiming for a profit on potential declines. Given the current volatility environment, the time frame of 30-60 days for expiration will effectively capture upward or downward price movements.

November 03, 2024