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CP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CP's strategic expansion and robust historical growth support a bullish outlook. Lower competition barriers post-merger enhance revenue potential.

Bearish Case: High volatility and integration challenges post-merger may negatively impact CP's operational efficiency, posing a downside risk.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Mean reversion (60%).

2) Price decline due to labor tensions (20%).

3) Strategic gains improve outlook (20%).

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish short volatility stance via 30-day short put credit spreads around $70 to $75 strikes, capitalizing on mean reversion and current volatility structure. This offers a high reward:risk ratio and an edge in the range-bound environment.

January 14, 2025

Canadian Pacific Railway Forecast

CP Canadian Pacific Railway

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CP

ABEV Ambev (0.76)

LEA Lear (0.75)

BRKR Bruker (0.74)

BGS B&G Foods (0.72)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (0.72)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CP

TRV Travelers Companies (-0.0)

GTLB Gitlab (0.01)

AZN Astrazeneca (-0.01)

MCD McDonald's (-0.02)

VTRS Viatris (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CP

ARGT Global X Funds - Global X MSCI Argentina (-0.68)

AGX Argan (-0.68)

NRG NRG Energy (-0.69)

HIMS Hims & Hers Health (-0.7)

CRK Comstock Resources (-0.78)

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