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CP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CP's strategic expansions and robust network position enhance long-term growth prospects. The recent backwardation in implied volatility suggests potential upward price pressures.

Bearish Case: High sensitivity to economic and geopolitical tensions, along with integration challenges post-merger, point towards potential operational inefficiencies that could suppress stock price.

Potential Outcomes: 65% mean reversion continues; 20% rally from strategic gains; 15% drop due to economic shocks.

Trading Oracle: Execute a bullish short put credit spread using $70-$75 strikes expiring in 60 days. This captures premium from current volatility structure and benefits from expected mean reversion. High reward:risk with a positive edge aligns with backwardation and current economic trends.

February 08, 2025

Canadian Pacific Railway Forecast

CP Canadian Pacific Railway

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CP

IQV IQVIA (0.81)

HII Huntington Ingalls Industries (0.81)

CNI Canadian National Railway (0.75)

LYB LyondellBasell Industries (0.73)

PPG PPG Industries (0.72)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CP

EXR Extra Space Storage (0.01)

CRNC Cerence (-0.02)

RACE Ferrari (-0.04)

RMBS Rambus (0.04)

HCC Warrior Met Coal (0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CP

MTZ Mastec (-0.67)

WIX Wix.com (-0.69)

TXRH Texas Roadhouse (-0.7)

GME Gamestop (-0.7)

EUO ProShares UltraShort Euro (-0.71)

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