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CPB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The high call option volume and low implied volatility in the longer term suggest positive market sentiment and potential upside with successful earnings and strategic initiatives.

Bearish Case: The backwardation in the term structure and recent legal disputes raise concerns of uncertainty and potential downside pressure, especially if earnings fail to meet expectations.

Potential Outcomes:

1) Earnings surprise, CPB rises 6% (40%).

2) Stable earnings, no significant change (35%).

3) Earnings miss, stock drops 5% (25%).

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February 22, 2025

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