Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Recent institutional support indicates potential for upward movement, especially with upcoming product launches and positive earnings sentiment. Market volatility is currently lower than implied, suggesting a favorable risk-reward ratio for bulls.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility indicates market skepticism and potential downside risks. Insider selling and negative sentiment from analysts may trigger further declines in stock price, particularly if earnings disappoint.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Upward price movement (35% chance) due to positive earnings and sentiment.

2. Sideways movement (30%) as investors wait for clearer cues.

3. Downside risk (35%) from insider selling and uncertainty surrounding future guidance.

Trading Oracle: Engage in a bullish strategy by selling 1 CRUS $100 put and buying 1 CRUS $95 put, targeting a 70% chance of profit with a potential return of 31%. Utilize this debit spread to leverage low implied volatility while setting a risk-reward ratio of 1:3. Consider adjusting as market conditions shift over the next few weeks.

November 03, 2024