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DBX Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: DBX's shift to a metered model and continuous AI innovation can attract genuine customers leading to enhanced revenue streams, buoyed by high short-term implied volatility indicating a bullish sentiment ahead.



Bearish Case: Persistent customer churn due to data privacy issues and a weak macroeconomic outlook, coupled with significant layoffs, can hinder growth and depress stock performance despite current high volatility.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Customer Retention (45%): Positive response to metered pricing.


2. Customer Loss (35%): Churn due to data concerns.


3. Market Influence (20%): Economic factors affecting tech growth.



Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility observed, a bullish strategy such as a bull call spread can be advantageous. Buy DBX 31.00 calls and sell 32.00 calls with near-term expiration to capitalize on potential upside in the stock while mitigating risk, with an estimated return of 27% if successful.


December 13, 2024


Dropbox Forecast

DBX        Dropbox

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DBX


IJH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IJH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap (0.88)


TWLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWLO  Twilio (0.85)


COO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COO  Cooper Companies (0.84)


EXPE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXPE  Expedia (0.83)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (0.82)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DBX


BYND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYND  Beyond Meat (-0.0)


BTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BTI  British American Tobacco (0.0)


GTES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTES  Gates Industrial (-0.0)


WPM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPM  Wheaton Precious Metals (-0.0)


CMI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMI  Cummins (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DBX


MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.68)


SHEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHEL  Shell Plc - ADR (Representing) (-0.72)


OGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGN  Organon (-0.74)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.76)


FANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FANG  Diamondback Energy (-0.76)







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