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COF Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Recent acquisition of Discover may enhance market position, boosting earnings. Favorable options implied volatility supports potential upside.

Bearish Case: Legal challenges and high credit loss provisions present risks. Increased put volume suggests bearish sentiment despite stable term structure.

Potential Outcomes: Stable financial performance with a 40% chance, economic headwinds with credit loss impact 30%, positive post-acquisition synergies drive growth 30%.

June 14, 2025

Capital One Financial Forecast

COF Capital One Financial

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with COF

XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR (0.97)

JPM JPMorgan Chase (0.96)

BYD Boyd Gaming (0.96)

RCL Royal Caribbean (0.95)

ARKF ARK Fintech Innovation (0.95)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to COF

KO Coca-Cola (-0.01)

VTRS Viatris (0.01)

ACMR ACM Research (0.02)

SIRI Sirius XM (-0.02)

NGG National Grid (0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against COF

OGN Organon (-0.73)

KHC Kraft Heinz (-0.75)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.75)

BMRN Registered Shares (-0.76)

NVO Novo Nordisk (-0.77)

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