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DLTR Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: DLTR's expansion strategy and adaptation to consumer spending trends posit a recovery, while high call option activity suggests market optimism. Increased foot traffic and affordability appeal may result in sales growth.



Bearish Case: Regulatory scrutiny and theft issues threaten profitability, with historical price performance indicating potential decline. Market uncertainties and competition could exacerbate challenges, leading to further price erosion.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. Recovery from regulatory pressures yields a 45% chance of price stability (40%).
  • 2. Continued theft impact forces product cuts, leading to a 35% decline (30%).
  • 3. Expansion into premium items attracts clientele, improving margins by 20% (30%).



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December 12, 2024


Dollar Tree Forecast

DLTR        Dollar Tree

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with DLTR


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (0.94)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.94)


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (0.94)


LEA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEA  Lear (0.93)


BLMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLMN  Bloomin Brands (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to DLTR


HIVE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIVE  HIVE Blockchain (0.01)


LUV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LUV  Southwest Airlines (-0.01)


CRNT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRNT  Ceragon Networks (-0.02)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (0.03)


AVTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AVTR  Avantor (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against DLTR


GDDY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GDDY  Godaddy (-0.93)


PNW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNW  Pinnacle West (-0.93)


MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (-0.93)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.94)


KGC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KGC  Kinross Gold (-0.95)







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